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中国移动、华为5G研发劲头足,频谱战略规划待落实
2016/11/8

最近一段时间内,5G火爆朋友圈,微信公众号里诞生了近7000篇5G热文,5G的百度指数也比过去一年的最高值翻了10倍有余。

中国公司华为引爆了这场5G的舆论盛宴,其牵头的Polar Code在11月17日被3GPP标准组织采纳为5G的控制信道编码方案。编码和调制技术被视为无线通信领域的皇冠,中国公司首次在如此核心的标准领域取得话语权。

紧随其后,中国移动牵头的5G系统系统设计也正式启动标准化,该项目将在2017年底制定《5G系统总体架构及功能》及《5G系统基本流程》两个基础性标准。

工信部则在11月20日邀请多家国内外运营商举办5G技术研发试验第二阶段规范发布会,并重申了“加强国际合作、推动5G形成全球统一标准”的愿景。

标准的博弈与妥协

国外媒体对于11月14日至18日在美国里诺召开的3GPP会议几乎没有任何报道。即便是一个月之前高通牵头的LDCP码方案获选,也未能引发媒体关注。一位外企公司人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者:“这次会议跟以往没什么区别,虽然涉及到一些博弈,但更多是寻常的技术讨论。最主要的意义,就是推动5G标准进程又向前迈了一步。”

事实上,这是5G编码方案的第二次较量。2016年10月14日,由高通牵头的LDPC码以多数投票胜出,战胜Polar码被采纳为5G eMBB场景的数据信道长码块编码方案。这次会议上,5G的短码方案被留在11月14-18日的会议上讨论,而控制信令以及URLLC场景、mMTC场景等方案则在未来讨论。

11月17日,Polar码扳回一城,以多数选票当选为为短码编码方案。虽然Polar码诞生时间较短,但据悉,采用Polar码可以实现5G速率达到27Gbps,达到了5G峰值速率20Gbps的要求。

“要把全球的标准组织联合在一起推动统一标准,就得尽可能实现利益平分。”通信业知名公众号5GNR介绍:“妥协、折中,一直是3GPP的哲学。”

GNR举例介绍,在去年立项的NB-IOT方案之初,华为、高通坚持的CIOT方案与爱立信、Intel提出的NB-LTE方案竞争激烈,而最终3GPP就对双方进行折中,提出了NB-IOT方案。在保证双方利益均分的前提下,3GPP统一了所有企业的力量,加速了NB-IOT的进程。

对于传统业务进入增长天花板的通信行业,NB-IOT被视为下一个蓝海,据全球物联网研究机构Machina Research的统计数据,2015年,全球运营商物联网联接数2.3亿,给运营商贡献市场约70亿美元,这一数字在2020年将达到240亿美元。一位华为工作人员介绍,到2020年,接入运营商网络的物联网设备占比有可能达到20%,而且占比还会继续提升。对于推动NB-IOT的公司而言,尽早实现NB-IOT商用才是最重要的。

如今,5G采纳了LDPC、Polar两种方案,同样平衡了多方利益。对于参与5G标准博弈的企业而言,加速全球统一5G标准的落地,是所有博弈的前提。

技术领先、政策之后

2014年以来,全球通信业增长缓慢,运营商、通信企业均寄希望5G扭转通信业的颓势。

因此,在ITU定义5G时,除了延续传统业务的eMBB场景,还规划了URLLC、mMTC两大场景,前者致力于大规模物联网组网,后者则服务于需要超低时延的工业机器人、无人驾驶领域。事实上,这也是全球科技界视为“未来”的领域,通信业希望通过这两种场景带来新的收入,以改变运营商过去以往依赖用户红利的增长模式。

当然,这也就意味着3GPP需要引入更多的参与者。据21世纪经济报道记者了解,在5G初期,通信行业向汽车、工业领域的主导企业推广5G时,并未能吸引到足够的投入。目前,诸如通用汽车等行业主导者已经加入3GPP组织,且积极参与标准制定,但相比于传统通信公司而言并不能进入主流。

只有足够的利益才能吸引传统行业接纳5G,而这需要通信企业、3GPP在日后定义URLLC、mMTC场景时,向汽车、工业、医疗等行业予以足够的妥协。而且,需要指出,汽车、工业领域是中国的弱势环节,诸如华为等中国通信公司在这些场景的标准中,并非处于有利位置。

当然,中国通信业在不断成长,但“主导5G”尚言之过早。半年前的“美国商务部制裁中兴”,当时,因为中国通信业的核心元器件都主要从美国进口,通信业被指形势严峻。在一份华为的网络安全报告中,华为介绍其产品70%的物料来自进口,且32%来自美国,以2012年为例,华为从美国公司的采购额达到57.2亿美元。这一局面短期内无从改变。

而如今,美国、欧洲政府对5G的扶持、重视程度丝毫不弱于中国。2016年7月,美国白宫宣布投资5亿美元资助5G,并且吸引了接近20家公司在美国4座城市搭建5G测试平台。同时,FCC(联邦通信委员会)正式将24GHz频谱用于5G,频谱资源是无线通信最重要的资源。

2016年9月,欧盟委员会公布了“5G for Europe”,宣布在年底前制定完整的5G部署路线图,并且在2018年开始预商用5G,且要求成员国在2020年之前均要选取城市提供5G服务。而且,欧盟也明确在2016年底前提供多个频段频谱供测试用,且2017年前确定6GHz、毫米波等频谱资源供5G使用。

相比于欧盟、美国,中国在5G的研发工作并不落后,工信部很早成立了IMT-2020,且出台了863、重大专项支持。但是,虽然工信部给出了“强化频谱统筹”、“储备不低于500MHz的频谱资源”等承诺,但遗憾的是,目前我国尚无推出5G频谱战略规划的迹象。而且,中国也尚未像美国、欧盟一样出台行动纲要。

需要指出,频谱资源一直是困扰我国通信业发展的政策问题之一,但这一问题始终在电信系、广电系的政治博弈中被搁置,目前也没有解决的迹象。

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